CAIRO, Oct. 31 — An old joke here goes something like this: President Hosni Mubarak is on his deathbed when an aide comes to his side and says, “Mr. President, aren’t you going to give a farewell speech to the people?” The president opens his eyes and replies: “Really? Why? Where are the people going?”
At three decades, Mr. Mubarak’s tenure is the longest of any president since the ouster of the king in the 1950s. He has served longer than Gamal Abdel Nasser, a pioneer of Arab nationalism, and longer than Anwar el-Sadat, the man who made peace with Israel. He is routinely referred to as Egypt’s modern pharaoh, though usually in a cautious whisper.
Beginning on Friday, Mr. Mubarak’s ruling party, the National Democratic Party, will hold a general assembly. Six thousand, five hundred delegates from Egypt, along with guests from around the world, will gather to talk and listen. They will discuss economic, political and terrorism-related issues. What they will not discuss, party officials said, is succession — arguably, and in many minds, one of the most important issues regarding Egypt’s long-term stability.
Who will come after Mr. Mubarak?
It is a question many people here ask, but as a party official said after a briefing on the assembly, “You will never get the answer you want.”
“The issue of succession is regulated by the Constitution,” said Ali Eddin Helal, a party official at the briefing. “This is a country ruled by institutions, not by individuals.”
That is the answer you get.
But the issue is so delicate that the government threatened to put an editor in prison after his newspaper ran articles saying the president was in ill health. The government’s own prosecutors said the news had so shaken the nation, it had cost the economy hundreds of millions of dollars. As the rumors swirled about Mr. Mubarak’s health, Egypt’s chief religious official, appointed by the president, issued a fatwa saying that journalists who spread rumors should receive 80 lashes.
The United States is watching the issue of succession closely because Washington risks finding itself in the same compromised position as Saudi Arabia found itself in Lebanon.
The Saudis vested their influence in Lebanon in the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. When he was assassinated, they lost their channel for influence and watched as the influence of Iran — which invested in building an institution, Hezbollah — grew. Saudi officials now say that Iran was smarter because even if someone were to kill the charismatic leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s influence in Lebanon would continue through the institution.
Similarly, the United States has vested its interests in Mr. Mubarak, while directing most of its aid dollars to the Egyptian military. Mr. Mubarak has not always been the perfect ally, but American officials say that he is invaluable for his historical perspective and the importance he places on the relationship with the United States and peace with Israel. An American official here said the hope was that Mr. Mubarak’s ultimate replacement would be someone who maintains the same historical appreciation for peace and relations with Washington.
There are, of course, candidates who are talked about. Travel around Egypt and nearly everyone asked assumes the heir apparent is Gamal Mubarak, the president’s younger son and a force in the ruling party. Hosni Mubarak once said that the presidency was not inherited in Egypt, and then derisively referred to the transfer of power in Syria, from Hafez al-Assad to his son Bashar.
But many people say that the focus of Mr. Mubarak’s statement was on the word inherited, not on his son, which means the younger Mr. Mubarak could become the elected president. Politics and elections in Egypt are controlled by the government and the ruling party, and in the absence of any true opposition, the party’s candidate is certain to win.
But there is a problem: every president since the king’s overthrow has come from the military. Gamal is not a military officer, nor has he spent time in the ranks. Rumors have spread that the assembly will be used to elevate his position in the party as a first step in the transition. But party officials say that they expect no changes.
The other name most commonly raised is Omar Suleiman, the longtime chief of intelligence. He holds the rank of general and is seen as more palatable to the military and as having the same orientation to Israel and Washington as Mr. Mubarak. But he presents a problem, too. He is not a member of the National Democratic Party and would have to resign from the military and spend a year as a high-ranking party official before he could become a presidential candidate. The only man who now possesses all the qualifications is the president himself.
Publicly, party members say that it is too soon to discuss succession and that it is only the opposition that seeks to raise the issue to embarrass the president and his son. But many party members admit they are uneasy about how the military will respond when it is time to select a successor.
Egypt’s military is silent on political matters, leaving the face of governance to civilian bodies. But it is the most powerful institution in the country. The president, and only the president, knows the thinking of both arms of the state, military and civilian.
Even if the party coalesced around a candidate, there is no way to know if the military would go along. With no obvious replacement, and no system to select one, it will be a game of wait and see, said one government official, who spoke anonymously for fear of retribution. “I wonder if I will wake up one day and see tanks in the street,” he said.
Mr. Mubarak holds the title of president, but he is treated with reverence. About a year ago, one of his top public relations officials was asked if the president would be willing to give an interview for his obituary in The New York Times. It is standard to have obituaries prepared for historic figures. “I am the last Egyptian you will talk to about that,” the official said, both as a warning and as a bit of friendly advice.
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